The recent data released by the National Bureau of Statistics reports real GDP for the year 2020 to have contracted by -1.92% YoY. In Q4:2020, real GDP was surprisingly higher by 0.11% YoY (vs. our forecast of -2.37%YoY) – marking an earlier than expected exit from the recession. However, the oil sector remained subdued as real oil GDP contracted by -19.76% YoY in Q4:2020, while the Non-oil sector grew by only 1.64% in real terms in the same period. Consequently, the oil sector’s contribution to real GDP slumped to 5.87% (vs. 7.32% in Q4:2019), while the Non-oil sector contributed 94.13% (vs. 92.68% in Q4:2019).
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