Post Inflation Report | September 2021

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported headline inflation for September 2021 at 16.63%YoY (vs 17.01%YoY in August) – only 3bps above our forecast of 16.60%YoY. While food inflation moderated for the sixth consecutive month to 19.57%YoY from 20.30%YoY in August, core inflation increased to 13.74%YoY in September, after showing a moderation in the previous month (13.41%YoY in August; 13.72%YoY in July).
However, price increments continued to be witnessed on key food items like bread, cereal, fish, yam, coffee, milk, cheese, and egg. For the core index, prices of gas, passenger transport by air, household textiles, garments, motor car, major household appliances and hospital services were the main drivers. On a month-on-month basis, the food and core indices increased by 1.26%MoM (from 1.06%MoM in August) and 1.24%MoM (from 0.77%MoM in August) respectively.
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